Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4689 at 18:31, 35%.

Safest bet today WN 4689 CLE 18:31 → MCO 21:13 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1056 CLE 18:48 → MCO 21:27 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4689 Southwest	CLE 18:31	MCO 21:13	35%	11%	0.4%	no record
F9 3916 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 14:48	MCO 17:24	37%	16%	1.3%	72%
F9 2280 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:47	MCO 00:21	38%	25%	1.8%	76%worse than usual
F9 1056 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:48	MCO 21:27	45%	27%	1.5%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON