Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:00 pm at Cleveland); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4976 at 20:20, 38%.

Nonstops today


WN 4976 Southwest	CLE 20:20	STL 21:09	38%	10%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLE 20:47 → ORD 21:31AA 3466 · flown by Envoy	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 23:13 → STL 00:44 +1AA 3069	4h 57m	91%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLE 20:03 → ATL 22:11DL 1350	59m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	4h 50m	75%	28%
Southwest Details →	CLE 21:10 → BNA 21:40WN 4694	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → STL 23:55WN 682	3h 45m	61%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON