Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1843 at 22:26, 43%.

Safest bet today AA 1843 CLT 22:26 → BOS 00:37 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 901 CLT 18:35 → BOS 20:46 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1843 American Flight history →	CLT 22:26	BOS 00:37	43%	19%	0.3%	71%worse than usual
AA 1422 American Flight history →	CLT 17:47	BOS 20:10	48%	23%	0.4%	51%
AA 2595 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	BOS 20:59	54%	34%	0.3%	59%worse than usual
AA 901 American Flight history →	CLT 18:35	BOS 20:46	55%	30%	0.3%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON