Today: AA 1318 at 22:45 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–46%.

Safest bet today AA 1318 CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 205 CLT 19:45 → BWI 21:22 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1318 American Flight history →	CLT 22:45	BWI 00:14	35%	11%	0.5%	74%
AA 2384 American	CLT 17:03	BWI 18:40	37%	10%	0.5%	no record
AA 2855 American Flight history →	CLT 18:50	BWI 20:27	39%	13%	0.4%	76%worse than usual
AA 1495 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	BWI 20:36	40%	13%	0.4%	67%
WN 4937 Southwest	CLT 19:55	BWI 21:30	45%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 205 Southwest	CLT 19:45	BWI 21:22	46%	14%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON