Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: UA 792 at 16:23, 44%.

Safest bet today UA 792 CLT 16:23 → DEN 18:19 · 44% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1361 CLT 19:52 → DEN 21:35 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 792 United	CLT 16:23	DEN 18:19	44%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 1659 American	CLT 22:36	DEN 00:14	44%	14%	0.2%	no record
AA 3156 American Flight history →	CLT 18:29	DEN 20:08	51%	14%	0.2%	63%worse than usual
F9 1361 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 19:52	DEN 21:35	52%	19%	0.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON