Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 50–58% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3078 CLT 22:21 → JAX 23:52 · 50% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1302 CLT 23:00 → JAX 00:26 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 57% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3078 American	CLT 22:21	JAX 23:52	50%	20%	1.1%	no record
AA 2713 American Flight history →	CLT 22:33	JAX 23:59	58%	22%	1.1%	70%worse than usual
AA 1302 American Flight history →	CLT 23:00	JAX 00:26	58%	24%	1.3%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON