Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–44% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1727 CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 657 CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1727 American Flight history →	CLT 20:54	JFK 23:00	37%	22%	0.6%	62%
AA 657 American Flight history →	CLT 18:02	JFK 20:06	44%	29%	0.6%	58%
DL 5067 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 19:26	JFK 21:39	31%	16%	8.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON