Today: AA 2031 at 21:49 is the safest bet, 36% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–63%.

Safest bet today AA 2031 CLT 21:49 → LGA 23:39 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest F9 3134 CLT 20:49 → LGA 22:02 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 62% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2031 American Flight history →	CLT 21:49	LGA 23:39	36%	10%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
AA 2068 American Flight history →	CLT 21:37	LGA 23:30	36%	11%	0.7%	66%
F9 3134 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:49	LGA 22:02	63%	24%	1.5%	56%worse than usual
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:12	LGA 22:21	33%	18%	10.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON