Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 37–44% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1596 CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest F9 3038 CLT 21:53 → MIA 23:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1596 American Flight history →	CLT 22:39	MIA 00:46	37%	10%	0.4%	60%
AA 2321 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MIA 22:21	38%	13%	0.3%	51%
AA 3068 American Flight history →	CLT 22:47	MIA 00:48	39%	9%	0.4%	66%
F9 3038 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 21:53	MIA 23:59	44%	18%	0.9%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON