Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:16 pm at Charlotte); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 459 at 22:56, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 459 American Flight history →	CLT 22:56	STL 23:58	39%	9%	0.2%	75%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 19:50 → ATL 21:13DL 2132	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	5h 03m	81%	26%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 21:09 → ORD 22:20AA 815	53m Chicago	ORD 23:13 → STL 00:44 +1AA 3069	4h 35m	54%	39%
Southwest Details →	CLT 21:20 → BNA 21:50WN 1168	55m Nashville	BNA 22:45 → STL 00:09 +1WN 277	3h 49m	46%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON