Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: OH 5232 at 22:41, 45%.

Safest bet today OH 5232 CLT 22:41 → TYS 23:53 · 45% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5368 CLT 20:50 → TYS 22:02 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5232 PSA	CLT 22:41	TYS 23:53	45%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 5511 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:40	TYS 23:51	50%	14%	0.8%	44%
OH 5368 PSA	CLT 20:50	TYS 22:02	52%	18%	0.8%	no record
AA 5909 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 20:35	TYS 21:58	35%	14%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON