Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 pm at Columbus); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 2786 at 20:08 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 56%.

Nonstops today


DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	CMH 20:08	ATL 22:00	25%	11%	0.6%	75%
F9 2539 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 19:37	ATL 21:25	56%	29%	1.5%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CMH 19:40 → IAD 21:09UA 4593 · flown by GoJet	1h 18m Dulles	IAD 22:27 → ATL 00:38 +1UA 1357	4h 58m	89%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CMH 20:05 → MDW 20:20WN 1200	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 21:20 → ATL 00:20 +1WN 1444	4h 15m	58%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON