Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 287 at 18:06, 33%.

Safest bet today WN 287 CMH 18:06 → MCO 20:26 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1612 CMH 20:59 → MCO 23:29 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 287 Southwest	CMH 18:06	MCO 20:26	33%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 4043 Southwest	CMH 21:35	MCO 23:55	35%	18%	0.6%	no record
WN 384 Southwest	CMH 21:46	MCO 00:06	35%	19%	0.6%	no record
WN 1169 Southwest	CMH 18:30	MCO 20:55	36%	18%	0.7%	no record
F9 1612 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 20:59	MCO 23:29	45%	30%	2.7%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON