Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:58 pm at Hebron); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


DL 5507 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 18:00	JFK 20:25	27%	14%	5.4%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 16:30 → MSP 17:32DL 3113	2h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 20:29 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	7h 32m	100%	70%
American Details →	CVG 16:07 → MIA 18:58AA 3554 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Miami	MIA 21:51 → JFK 00:59 +1AA 944	8h 52m	99%	65%
Delta Details →	CVG 15:53 → FLL 18:27DL 661	1h 32m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 19:59 → JFK 23:05DL 1419	7h 12m	87%	56%
American Details →	CVG 17:12 → CLT 18:44AA 1556	2h 10m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	5h 48m	89%	56%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:52 +1DL 1632	7h 04m	95%	52%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	6h 53m	95%	48%
Delta Details →	CVG 15:20 → TPA 17:29DL 1679	2h 30m Tampa	TPA 19:59 → JFK 23:03DL 2095	7h 43m	95%	46%
Delta Details →	CVG 15:58 → MCO 18:23DL 2824	1h 29m Orlando	MCO 19:52 → JFK 22:59DL 1668	7h 01m	85%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CVG 18:25 → MIA 21:04AA 3487 · flown by Envoy	47m Miami	MIA 21:51 → JFK 00:59 +1AA 944	6h 34m	50%	33%
Delta Details →	CVG 20:03 → ATL 21:49DL 2199	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:52 +1DL 1632	4h 49m	61%	33%
American Details →	CVG 15:11 → DFW 16:45AA 3305	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:39 → JFK 22:30AA 1203	7h 19m	43%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON