Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 pm at Hebron); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:59, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 19:59 → SLC 21:44DL 2149	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 41m	81%	63%
American Details →	CVG 19:07 → CLT 20:43AA 2911	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068	5h 41m	92%	56%
Delta Details →	CVG 19:59 → ATL 21:42DL 3119	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	4h 56m	81%	32%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 20:03 → ATL 21:49DL 2199	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	4h 52m	66%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON