Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:35 pm at Hebron); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47% (calm day: 32%). Best bet: Southwest via Midway, leaving 20:25, 27% on time.

Nonstops today


DL 2149 Delta Flight history →	CVG 19:59	SLC 21:44	24%	8%	0.2%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CVG 18:01 → PHX 19:06AA 1725	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 20:22 → SLC 23:07AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	7h 06m	80%	46%
United Details →	CVG 18:12 → ORD 18:50UA 1813	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710	6h 36m	75%	43%
Delta Details →	CVG 17:48 → ATL 19:30DL 1008	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	8h 38m	95%	29%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CVG 20:25 → MDW 20:35WN 1251	1h 01m Chicago	MDW 21:36 → SLC 00:00 +1WN 3009	5h 35m	60%	27%
American Details →	CVG 20:01 → DFW 21:30AA 1728	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	6h 35m	67%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON