Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:03 pm at Dallas); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 44% on a calm day. Safest: WN 247 at 20:40, 58%.

Nonstops today


WN 247 Southwest	DAL 20:40	BWI 00:44	58%	14%	0.5%	no record
WN 1888 Southwest	DAL 20:50	BWI 00:50	58%	14%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 19:10 → DEN 20:30WN 1304	3h 20m Denver	DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501	9h 05m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 20:50 → DEN 22:15WN 1305	1h 35m Denver	DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501	7h 25m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON