Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Dallas)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 46% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4992 at 16:45, 55%.

Nonstops today


WN 4992 Southwest	DAL 16:45	CLT 20:15	55%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 4299 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:10	CLT 20:40	58%	17%	0.2%	30%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 59m	95%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 19:05 → CLT 21:56WN 4904	5h 06m	49%	25%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139	4h 58m	69%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON