Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 68%, against 41% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3373 at 21:50, 67%.

Safest bet today WN 3373 DAL 21:50 → ELP 22:40 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time Riskiest WN 2154 DAL 19:35 → ELP 20:20 · 70% chance 15+ min late

Weather 68% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 41% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3373 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 21:50	ELP 22:40	67%	18%	0.4%	54%worse than usual
WN 2650 Southwest	DAL 20:00	ELP 20:53	68%	20%	0.4%	no record
WN 4147 Southwest	DAL 22:55	ELP 23:47	69%	19%	0.4%	no record
WN 2154 Southwest	DAL 19:35	ELP 20:20	70%	22%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON