Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 40% on a calm day. Safest: WN 41 at 16:52, 51%.

Safest bet today WN 41 DAL 16:52 → HOU 18:13 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest WN 49 DAL 18:35 → HOU 19:50 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Weather 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:52	HOU 18:13	51%	15%	1.4%	68%worse than usual
WN 39 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:15	HOU 17:30	54%	18%	1.4%	69%worse than usual
WN 65 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:45	HOU 00:06	55%	14%	1.4%	50%
WN 55 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:28	HOU 21:49	55%	19%	1.4%	57%worse than usual
WN 49 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:35	HOU 19:50	56%	22%	1.5%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON