Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 48% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1080 at 21:30, 60%.

Safest bet today WN 1080 DAL 21:30 → LAS 22:20 · 60% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4378 DAL 22:40 → LAS 23:30 · 65% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Weather 62% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1080 Southwest	DAL 21:30	LAS 22:20	60%	14%	0.5%	no record
WN 1372 Southwest	DAL 21:50	LAS 22:42	60%	14%	0.5%	no record
WN 665 Southwest	DAL 20:25	LAS 21:17	64%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 4378 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:40	LAS 23:30	65%	15%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON