Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 39–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 488 DAL 16:35 → MAF 17:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time Riskiest WN 4677 DAL 22:35 → MAF 23:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 488 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:35	MAF 17:50	39%	9%	0.3%	47%
WN 1396 Southwest	DAL 22:30	MAF 23:51	39%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 4677 Southwest	DAL 22:35	MAF 23:50	40%	11%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON