Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:27 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 61%, against 48% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1343 at 19:40, 61%.

Nonstops today


WN 1343 Southwest	DAL 19:40	MKE 22:00	61%	18%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 17:08 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 22:25 → MKE 23:15WN 1223	6h 07m	91%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	5h 17m	48%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON