Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:48 am at Dallas)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50% (calm day: 31%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:59, 44% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	7h 52m	95%	44%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058	7h 32m	95%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → PBI 18:36DL 959	5h 17m	73%	30%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	5h 12m	59%	27%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22DL 1606	5h 23m	61%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON