Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49% (calm day: 35%). Best bet: Southwest via Midway, leaving 15:50, 55% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → SEA 00:10 +1WN 1838	10h 20m	100%	55%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 22:20 → SEA 00:45 +1WN 4366	9h 38m	91%	50%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 00m	91%	40%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 50m Denver	DEN 21:15 → SEA 23:02WN 4358	7h 07m	78%	22%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 45m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856	7h 15m	71%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON