Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:17 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:59, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	10h 37m	95%	66%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	3h 26m Chicago	MDW 21:31 → SFO 00:10 +1WN 2199	10h 20m	100%	57%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	2h 11m Denver	DEN 21:36 → SFO 23:17WN 3297	7h 22m	85%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → SFO 22:49DL 545	8h 50m	72%	40%
Southwest Details →	DAL 19:10 → DEN 20:30WN 1304	1h 06m Denver	DEN 21:36 → SFO 23:17WN 3297	6h 07m	61%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON