Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:12 pm at Dallas)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1454 at 21:21, with a 43% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1454 Southwest	DAL 21:21	SJC 23:06	43%	14%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 15:05 → BUR 16:15WN 4076	2h 57m Burbank	BUR 19:12 → SJC 20:34WN 3869	7h 29m	91%	63%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	3h 16m Chicago	MDW 21:21 → SJC 23:59WN 1940	10h 09m	100%	60%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	8h 50m	75%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:08 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	1h 56m Chicago	MDW 21:21 → SJC 23:59WN 1940	8h 51m	72%	43%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 36m Denver	DEN 21:01 → SJC 22:46WN 3489	6h 51m	68%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON