Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:46 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 45% on a calm day. Safest: WN 298 at 20:45, 60%.

Nonstops today


WN 298 Southwest	DAL 20:45	SLC 22:37	60%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 2540 Southwest	DAL 21:55	SLC 23:40	64%	11%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	3h 40m Chicago	MDW 21:45 → SLC 00:15 +1WN 3326	9h 25m	100%	51%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	2h 10m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → SLC 00:00 +1WN 3009	7h 53m	91%	45%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	2h 05m Denver	DEN 21:30 → SLC 23:15WN 1737	6h 20m	83%	38%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	9h 27m	94%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 34m Denver	DEN 20:59 → SLC 22:33WN 4270	5h 38m	63%	25%
Southwest Details →	DAL 19:10 → DEN 20:30WN 1304	1h 00m Denver	DEN 21:30 → SLC 23:15WN 1737	5h 05m	42%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON