Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:44 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 48% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3841 Southwest	DAL 22:01	SMF 23:45	48%	13%	0.2%	no record
WN 4365 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:50	SMF 22:25	48%	14%	0.2%	27%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	3h 45m Chicago	MDW 21:50 → SMF 00:20 +1WN 4121	10h 30m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:05 → BUR 16:15WN 4076	3h 41m Burbank	BUR 19:56 → SMF 21:24WN 1132	8h 19m	96%	65%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:08 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	2h 11m Chicago	MDW 21:36 → SMF 00:12 +1WN 2994	9h 04m	93%	60%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	8h 54m	77%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 35m Denver	DEN 21:00 → SMF 22:35WN 2050	6h 40m	64%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON