Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:17 pm at Dallas); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1228 at 13:29, with a 46% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1228 Southwest	DAL 13:29	SNA 14:36	46%	9%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	8h 26m	75%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:55 → DEN 19:25WN 1303	1h 05m Denver	DEN 20:30 → SNA 21:55WN 744	6h 00m	50%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON