Today: WN 1218 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–49%.

Safest bet today WN 1218 DAL 08:30 → FLL 12:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1974 DFW 13:53 → FLL 17:55 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1218 Southwest	DAL 08:30	FLL 12:20	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1219 American	DFW 08:55	MIA 12:55	28%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 2511 American	DFW 07:38	FLL 11:46	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2762 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	MIA 13:29	33%	8%	0.4%	70%
AA 1454 American	DFW 10:23	MIA 14:23	33%	13%	0.5%	no record
AA 3220 American	DFW 11:40	FLL 15:39	38%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1246 Southwest	DAL 13:15	MIA 17:08	38%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1390 American Flight history →	DFW 10:25	FLL 14:24	40%	10%	0.7%	67%
WN 1286 Southwest	DAL 20:30	FLL 00:20	41%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 2090 American Flight history →	DFW 20:02	MIA 00:02	41%	10%	3.2%	56%
AA 899 American Flight history →	DFW 10:32	MIA 14:30	42%	12%	0.6%	55%
AA 2461 American	DFW 12:42	MIA 16:42	42%	14%	0.6%	no record
AA 1373 American Flight history →	DFW 12:52	FLL 16:59	42%	10%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
WN 4577 Southwest	DAL 15:50	MIA 19:40	42%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 2798 American	DFW 14:30	FLL 18:30	43%	12%	0.6%	no record
AA 3117 American Flight history →	DFW 12:45	MIA 16:43	44%	15%	0.6%	51%
WN 2902 Southwest	DAL 16:01	FLL 19:56	45%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 1862 American Flight history →	DFW 12:45	FLL 16:39	45%	11%	0.7%	55%
F9 2136 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:07	MIA 17:12	45%	22%	0.8%	70%worse than usual
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:58	MIA 22:02	45%	18%	1.2%	70%worse than usual
AA 2276 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	PBI 13:21	45%	12%	4.8%	72%worse than usual
AA 1393 American Flight history →	DFW 20:08	FLL 23:58	46%	10%	1.8%	36%
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	46%	12%	1.2%	56%
AA 1847 American Flight history →	DFW 19:10	FLL 23:17	46%	11%	0.8%	62%
AA 1167 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	MIA 18:24	46%	18%	0.6%	46%
AA 942 American	DFW 16:15	MIA 20:15	46%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 17:53	MIA 22:02	46%	13%	1.3%	63%
AA 2946 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	FLL 22:52	47%	12%	0.7%	49%
AA 2467 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	PBI 22:45	47%	18%	8.9%	61%
B6 482 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 11:28	FLL 15:24	48%	19%	0.9%	76%worse than usual
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	48%	17%	1.0%	25%
AA 3083 American Flight history →	DFW 15:39	MIA 19:40	48%	16%	1.0%	46%
AA 2206 American Flight history →	DFW 18:10	MIA 22:05	48%	15%	1.3%	56%
AA 1824 American Flight history →	DFW 19:12	MIA 22:59	49%	13%	1.3%	69%worse than usual
F9 3318 Frontier	DFW 13:40	FLL 17:44	52%	23%	1.4%	no record
F9 1974 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:53	FLL 17:55	53%	22%	1.3%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON