Today: MQ 3951 at 19:09 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–44%.

Safest bet today MQ 3951 DAY 19:09 → ORD 19:26 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5247 DAY 18:01 → ORD 18:19 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3951 Envoy	DAY 19:09	ORD 19:26	25%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 4749 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DAY 18:15	ORD 18:51	42%	8%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
OO 5247 SkyWest	DAY 18:01	ORD 18:19	44%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON