Today: YX 4682 at 20:23 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–60%.

Safest bet today YX 4682 DCA 20:23 → ATL 22:34 · 32% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 196 DCA 18:55 → ATL 20:45 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 21 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4682 Republic	DCA 20:23	ATL 22:34	32%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	DCA 20:50	ATL 23:00	35%	11%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:37	ATL 21:44	39%	11%	0.5%	70%
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:36	ATL 21:36	43%	11%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	45%	11%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
YX 4735 Republic	DCA 18:10	ATL 20:16	46%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 5502 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:01	ATL 22:03	52%	24%	1.4%	60%worse than usual
WN 196 Southwest	DCA 18:55	ATL 20:45	60%	14%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON