Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 pm at Washington); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:59, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27DL 1705	6h 28m	77%	60%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 21:50 → DEN 23:48UA 377	6h 38m	79%	54%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	7h 53m	85%	21%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	57m Chicago	ORD 22:39 → DEN 00:33 +1AA 2001	6h 27m	65%	42%
American Details →	DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 1140	50m Charlotte	CLT 21:39 → DEN 23:09AA 3156	6h 02m	56%	34%
American Details →	DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34AA 1158	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:45 → DEN 23:50AA 662	6h 42m	60%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON