Today: AA 2214 at 21:12 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–39%.

Safest bet today AA 2214 DCA 21:12 → MIA 23:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 582 DCA 19:05 → MIA 21:48 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2214 American	DCA 21:12	MIA 23:58	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1233 American Flight history →	DCA 20:40	MIA 23:28	30%	9%	0.6%	63%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:35	MIA 20:31	38%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 3244 American Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MIA 21:45	38%	11%	0.6%	49%
AA 582 American	DCA 19:05	MIA 21:48	39%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON