Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:05 pm at Washington); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 43–47% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OH 5390 PSA	DCA 20:59	MSP 22:50	43%	16%	1.0%	no record
AA 5506 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:06	MSP 21:54	47%	18%	1.2%	47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DCA 19:55 → BNA 20:55WN 1428	1h 45m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → MSP 00:52 +1WN 4934	5h 57m	82%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903	54m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 16m	61%	46%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	56m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	5h 00m	62%	40%
American Details →	DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 1140	1h 13m Charlotte	CLT 22:02 → MSP 23:41AA 2176	5h 34m	65%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON