Today: AA 4419 at 22:40 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–37%.

Safest bet today AA 4419 DCA 22:40 → ORD 23:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 3148 DCA 18:19 → ORD 19:28 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 28 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:40	ORD 23:59	21%	4%	0.6%	75%
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 22:28	ORD 23:38	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2903 American Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORD 21:42	31%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	33%	9%	0.5%	58%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORD 21:16	35%	9%	0.4%	63%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	35%	9%	0.4%	51%
AA 488 American	DCA 20:26	ORD 21:36	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 5450 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DCA 20:00	ORD 21:35	36%	11%	1.2%	54%
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:19	ORD 19:28	37%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON