Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 59%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1472 at 19:55, 55%.

Safest bet today WN 1472 DEN 19:55 → ATL 00:55 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time Riskiest F9 1450 DEN 19:17 → ATL 00:27 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 19 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1472 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:55	ATL 00:55	55%	17%	0.2%	12%
WN 1700 Southwest	DEN 18:50	ATL 23:56	61%	14%	0.2%	no record
F9 1450 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:17	ATL 00:27	61%	24%	0.7%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON