Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1790 at 17:40, 42%.

Safest bet today UA 1790 DEN 17:40 → CLE 22:41 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest WN 1425 DEN 18:55 → CLE 23:48 · 62% chance 15+ min late

Weather 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1790 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CLE 22:41	42%	9%	0.2%	75%worse than usual
WN 2337 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:45	CLE 00:40	54%	13%	0.2%	31%
WN 1425 Southwest	DEN 18:55	CLE 23:48	62%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON