Today: AA 3156 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–50%.

Safest bet today AA 3156 DEN 23:59 → CLT 05:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 1283 DEN 16:09 → CLT 21:30 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3156 American Flight history →	DEN 23:59	CLT 05:13	26%	6%	0.3%	67%
UA 616 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	CLT 23:08	40%	9%	0.2%	71%worse than usual
AA 1662 American Flight history →	DEN 14:19	CLT 19:29	45%	10%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AA 1735 American Flight history →	DEN 15:57	CLT 21:27	48%	10%	0.2%	54%
AA 1283 American Flight history →	DEN 16:09	CLT 21:30	50%	10%	0.2%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON