Today: UA 2188 at 09:47 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet today UA 2188 DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1374 DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2188 United Flight history →	DEN 09:47	FLL 15:47	21%	6%	0.2%	83%
UA 1214 United	DEN 09:58	FLL 16:09	24%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 519 United	DEN 23:59	FLL 05:50	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2586 Southwest	DEN 12:36	FLL 18:27	28%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 1561 Southwest	DEN 13:25	FLL 19:25	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 1384 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	FLL 20:08	31%	7%	0.2%	67%
UA 1374 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	FLL 23:49	38%	9%	0.3%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON