Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 758 at 23:55, 20%.

Safest bet today DL 758 DEN 23:55 → JFK 05:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 1498 DEN 14:09 → JFK 20:11 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 758 Delta Flight history →	DEN 23:55	JFK 05:44	20%	6%	0.3%	95%worse than usual
B6 98 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 23:59	JFK 05:50	38%	13%	0.5%	71%
B6 1498 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 14:09	JFK 20:11	55%	22%	0.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON