Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:05 pm at Denver); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 1737 at 23:45 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48%.

Nonstops today


AA 1737 American Flight history →	DEN 23:45	MIA 05:41	33%	8%	0.3%	61%
F9 1280 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:53	MIA 00:57	48%	19%	0.7%	77%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 18:56 → PHX 19:52AA 1638	3h 51m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → MIA 07:19 +1AA 3224	10h 23m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	DEN 19:09 → SLC 20:49DL 2663	2h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	8h 31m	93%	72%
United Details →	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	3h 14m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	11h 45m	94%	72%
American Details →	DEN 18:12 → LAX 19:53AA 4958 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 22:52 → MIA 07:18 +1AA 2777	11h 06m	91%	66%
Frontier Details →	DEN 18:31 → LAS 19:35F9 1765	2h 54m Las Vegas	LAS 22:29 → MIA 06:30 +1F9 4552	9h 59m	99%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 18:12 → LAX 19:53AA 4958 · flown by SkyWest	59m Los Angeles	LAX 20:52 → MIA 05:01 +1AA 2942	8h 49m	60%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON