Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: UA 4785 at 20:27, 39%.

Safest bet today UA 4785 DEN 20:27 → MKE 23:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest WN 1806 DEN 19:45 → MKE 23:15 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 4785 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:27	MKE 23:59	39%	10%	0.5%	63%
OO 4766 SkyWest	DEN 20:36	MKE 00:21	40%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 1806 Southwest	DEN 19:45	MKE 23:15	58%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON