Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2470 at 15:42, 35%.

Safest bet today UA 2470 DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 4541 DEN 16:02 → MSP 18:29 · 65% chance 15+ min late

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2470 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	MSP 18:46	35%	7%	0.2%	76%worse than usual
DL 2271 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:08	MSP 19:15	36%	9%	0.1%	72%
UA 667 United Flight history →	DEN 20:54	MSP 23:59	38%	11%	0.1%	59%
UA 2076 United Flight history →	DEN 18:45	MSP 21:50	39%	10%	0.1%	76%worse than usual
DL 1220 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:32	MSP 21:34	46%	12%	0.1%	72%worse than usual
WN 300 Southwest	DEN 20:05	MSP 23:10	60%	18%	0.1%	no record
F9 1292 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:11	MSP 00:19	60%	27%	0.5%	65%worse than usual
WN 2363 Southwest	DEN 18:51	MSP 21:52	63%	15%	0.1%	no record
WN 4541 Southwest	DEN 16:02	MSP 18:29	65%	10%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON