Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:26 pm at Denver); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 21:10, is the safest bet: 43% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → RDU 08:21 +1UA 1965	9h 11m	67%	43%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON