Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:43 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1827 at 20:05, 39%.

Safest bet today DL 1827 DFW 20:05 → ATL 23:16 · 39% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2496 DFW 13:19 → ATL 16:37 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Weather 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1827 Delta	DFW 20:05	ATL 23:16	39%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:17	ATL 15:35	44%	8%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:32	ATL 21:59	47%	14%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:50	ATL 17:14	48%	11%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
AA 3104 American Flight history →	DFW 11:01	ATL 14:26	48%	13%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
DL 2143 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:51	ATL 20:19	49%	13%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:23	ATL 19:34	50%	12%	0.6%	79%worse than usual
AA 1008 American Flight history →	DFW 12:08	ATL 15:33	51%	14%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
AA 2749 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	ATL 00:19	54%	24%	1.0%	55%
AA 1356 American Flight history →	DFW 12:10	ATL 15:20	55%	14%	1.1%	52%
AA 2398 American	DFW 13:33	ATL 16:53	60%	27%	0.9%	no record
AA 1386 American Flight history →	DFW 10:58	ATL 14:10	62%	11%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
F9 3022 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 19:56	ATL 23:15	62%	30%	2.3%	76%worse than usual
AA 2403 American Flight history →	DFW 16:05	ATL 19:30	67%	24%	0.8%	66%worse than usual
AA 3212 American Flight history →	DFW 17:38	ATL 20:59	67%	29%	0.8%	56%worse than usual
F9 2496 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:19	ATL 16:37	69%	32%	1.5%	50%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON