Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: AA 3722 at 17:19 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–60%.

Safest bet today AA 3722 DFW 17:19 → AUS 18:27 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 1146 DFW 16:04 → AUS 17:13 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 50% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:19	AUS 18:27	40%	12%	0.8%	61%
AA 5574 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:04	AUS 19:16	42%	19%	1.2%	65%
MQ 3348 Envoy	DFW 18:11	AUS 19:19	45%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 972 American Flight history →	DFW 21:35	AUS 22:39	46%	14%	0.6%	61%
AA 3726 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:55	AUS 15:00	46%	12%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:16	AUS 16:21	46%	12%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
AA 1852 American	DFW 12:33	AUS 13:41	46%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 2707 American Flight history →	DFW 20:33	AUS 21:37	49%	20%	0.8%	55%
AA 1588 American Flight history →	DFW 22:50	AUS 23:51	50%	14%	0.6%	57%
AA 789 American Flight history →	DFW 19:00	AUS 20:03	53%	20%	0.6%	55%
AA 576 American Flight history →	DFW 19:05	AUS 20:13	55%	20%	0.6%	65%worse than usual
AA 1073 American	DFW 13:31	AUS 14:42	58%	19%	1.0%	no record
AA 2103 American	DFW 14:49	AUS 16:00	58%	20%	1.0%	no record
AA 1146 American	DFW 16:04	AUS 17:13	60%	19%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON