Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:40 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 72%, against 45% on a calm day. Safest: DL 462 at 17:00, 66%.

Safest bet today DL 462 DFW 17:00 → BOS 21:55 · 66% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time Riskiest AA 2567 DFW 17:31 → BOS 22:20 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 72% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 462 Delta Flight history →	DFW 17:00	BOS 21:55	66%	27%	0.4%	43%
AA 410 American	DFW 16:45	BOS 21:49	68%	35%	0.8%	no record
DL 1809 Delta	DFW 17:12	BOS 21:49	69%	30%	0.4%	no record
AA 1366 American Flight history →	DFW 19:34	BOS 00:12	74%	35%	0.9%	64%worse than usual
AA 2224 American Flight history →	DFW 18:19	BOS 23:10	75%	34%	0.8%	40%worse than usual
AA 1268 American	DFW 18:43	BOS 23:21	75%	34%	0.8%	no record
AA 1767 American Flight history →	DFW 19:13	BOS 23:59	75%	38%	0.8%	42%worse than usual
AA 2567 American Flight history →	DFW 17:31	BOS 22:20	75%	40%	0.9%	56%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON