Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:26 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 53–58% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 472 DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 2077 DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 57% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	53%	17%	0.8%	65%worse than usual
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	55%	22%	0.7%	62%worse than usual
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	58%	24%	0.6%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON